Thursday, May 29, 2014

Promising the good times

INDIA brims with colourful politicians, but none has quite the sense of political theatre of Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He swept into Varanasi, India's most ancient city, on May 17th pledging to clean the Ganges, its holiest and filthiest river. Three days later, in Delhi, BJP parliamentarians chanted and roared unanimous support for him, and he broke down in tears in mid-speech. After that he called on India's president, Pranab Mukherjee, who agreed to swear him in as India's 14th prime minister on May 26th.

Mr Modi won the election by a margin almost nobody imagined possible. Last year he spoke of an aandhi, a "storm blowing in our favour". The storm broke, marking a national political shift as big as any since independence in 1947. Mr Modi smashed the long domination of Congress. In no previous national election had any single party got more votes than Congress; this time the BJP stunned its rival, winning 31% of the votes to Congress's 19%. No single party other than Congress had ever before won an outright parliamentary majority; this time the BJP alone took 282 of 543 seats (see map). Add its closest allies in the National Democratic Alliance and the tally is a handsome 336. Congress got just 44.

FULL ARTICLE AT: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21602710-overwhelming-election-victory-promises-reshape-indian-politics-promising-good-times

Modi's operandi

What explains the BJP's sweeping success? The answer matters: misreading previous election results led Congress to make poor policy choices. It mistakenly thought voters in 2004 had not cared about economic growth (in fact they had, but Congress won thanks to quirks in alliance politics). After winning in 2009 Congress deluded itself that promises of rural welfare had brought victory, when in fact it was job-hungry urban voters who put their faith in Manmohan Singh, the outgoing prime minister. Neglect since of young, aspiring town-dwelling voters cost Congress most.

There are many reasons why Mr Modi won so convincingly. His slick, expensive campaign shaped local media coverage: the BJP will not say, but it probably spent $1 billion. He is a gifted public speaker, vocal and strong. An outsider, he brings an enthralling story of rising from being a mere tea-seller's son. His lowish caste, as an "Other Backward Class", played well, especially in caste-obsessed UP.

Hindutva, a doctrine of Hindu supremacy, also counted, appealing to voters proud of their heritage and often antagonistic to Muslims. Mr Modi mostly eschewed anti-Muslim language, aside from barbs at Bangladeshi "infiltrators". But his credibility among the Hindu right was long ago established, so he needed do little more than devote attention to Varanasi and "maa Ganga" (mother Ganges), or pose with a big portrait of Lord Ram near the controversial site of a ruined mosque.

 

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